Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Arizona Diamondbacks -111

The Arizona Diamondbacks will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep after losing the first two games of this series to the Boston Red Sox.  They should be bigger favorites today given this motivation and their advantage on the mound.

The underrated Merrill Kelly goes for the Diamondbacks today to stop the bleeding.  He is 5-3 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.081 WHIP in 10 starts this season, following up a 2022 in which he went 13-8 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.138 WHIP in 33 starts.  He'll be opposed by Tanner Houck, who is 3-3 with a 4.99 ERA in nine starts this season.

The Red Sox are 3-8 in their last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter.  Boston is 17-39 in its last 56 games after scoring two runs or fewer in its previous game.  The Diamondbacks are 8-2 in their last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter.  Bet the Diamondbacks Sunday.

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15* Dodgers/Rays Interleague Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8.5

This is a very low total for two of the best offenses in baseball.  The Rays rank 2nd in scoring at 6.08 runs per game this season, while the Dodgers rank 3rd at 5.54 runs per game.  These teams combined for 12 and 11 runs in their first two meetings in this series, and it should be more of the same today.

Gavin Stone is 0-0 with a 10.12 ERA and 2.500 WHIP in two starts this season for the Dodgers, allowing 9 earned runs and 20 base runners in 8 innings.  He won't last long, and the Dodgers have a 4.55 ERA as a bullpen this season and a 5.71 ERA on the road.  The Rays will be making this mostly a bullpen game.  They have a 4.52 ERA as a bullpen this season and several injuries limiting their 'pen.

The OVER is 6-1 in Dodgers last seven games overall.  The OVER is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings.  The OVER is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings in Tampa Bay.  The OVER is 8-0 in Rays last eight home games.  The OVER is 14-2 in Rays last 16 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Cubs -150

The Chicago Cubs will be highly motivated for a victory Sunday to avoid the sweep after losing the first two games of this series to the Cincinnati Reds despite being favored in both.  They deserve to be even bigger favorites in Game 3 today with their advantage on the mound.

Ace Drew Smyly has been one of the most profitable starters in baseball.  He is 5-1 with a 2.93 ERA and 0.958 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA and 0.808 WHIP in five home starts.  Smyly is 5-1 with a 3.96 ERA in eight career starts against the Reds, and his teams are 7-1 in those eight starts.

Graham Ashcraft is 2-3 with a 5.57 ERA and 1.481 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 9.76 ERA and 1.851 WHIP in his last three starts while allowing 17 earned runs and 4 homers in 15 2/3 innings.  Aschcraft has never beaten the Cubs, going 0-4 with an 11.88 ERA and 2.101 WHIP in four career starts against them allowing 22 earned runs in 16 2/3 innings.

The Cubs are 15-4 in Smyly's last 19 starts as a favorite of -150 or less.  Chicago is 10-2 in Smyly's 12 day game starts over the past two seasons.  The Reds are 0-6 in their last six Sunday games.  Bet the Cubs Sunday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cardinals/Guardians UNDER 8.5

Light winds blowing in from center at pitcher-friendly Progressive Field in Cleveland today.  That will help us cash this UNDER 8.5 ticket between the Cardinals and Guardians in this one.

Jordan Montgomery is much better than he has shown thus far for the Cardinals and this will be one of his easiest tasks of the season facing this putrid Cleveland lineup.  Hunter Gaddis is coming off his best start of the season firing 6 shutout innings in a 3-0 home victory over the White Sox on May 22nd.  These are two of the best bullpens in baseball with the Guardians having a 3.20 ERA and the Cardinals a 3.56 ERA.

The Guardians have been held to 4 runs or fewer in 22 of their last 24 games overall.  They are hitting .217 and scoring 2.7 runs per game at home this season.  The UNDER is 26-7-2 in Guardians last 35 games overall. Cleveland is 17-1 UNDER after losing four or five of its last six games this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.